How can we predict Virginia's votes?
People's voting behavior depends on their outer circumstances and concerns. This means we have to dive into the lives of Virginia's residents and work our way through its systems, laws, and recent situations.
According to David Goldfield, Professor of History at the University of North Carolina, Charlotte, the most predominant key issue is the economy, and with that healthcare as well. He also mentions the importance of the geography and demographics of a state in regards to the elections.
Hence we will cover all these key aspects to get the whole picture.
The Economy
☆ Overall ranking of economy: Place 25
☆ Unemployment rate: 2.9% (US average 3.7%)
☆ Recent job growth: 1.7% (US average 1.6%)
☆ Future job growth: 34.9% (US average 33.5%)
☆ Income tax: 5.8% (US average 4.6%)
☆ Average income per resident: $33,958 (US average $28,555)
☆ Most common fields of occupation: Healthcare (12.2%),
Retail trade (10.8%), professional/technical services (10.6%)
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The visible growth of Virginia's economy went down due to Corona, but Governor Northam says the state is in a position of an economic rebound after the pandemic ends and announced $8.4 million to support the rural areas of Virginia.
Healthcare in times of Corona
Virginia, as of October 1st 2020, is among the 20 states with the highest Corona case numbers.
It's ranked no. 18 in regards to affordable and qualitative healthcare with 10% of the 19-64 year olds being uninsured.
Yet, similar to most states, it struggles with neccessary testing stations and is rather loose on mask and distance policies.
A high number of absentee voters is expected according to Governor Northam, with already 790,000 requests as of September 15th.
These circumstances, as well as the desire of many Virginian citizens to return to normality again, might influence how the 2020 election turns out.
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Urban & Rural Areas
Statistics have shown that people from urban and suburban areas tend to lean towards democratic beliefs, while those from rural regions are more often Republicans.
In 1900 barely one out of five Virginians resided in urban areas, whereas nowadays it's over three quarters - and the numbers are going up.
Home of 8 former Presidents
A place of history:
George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, William Henry Harrison, John Tyler, Zachary Taylor, and Woodrow Wilson were all born in Virginia, their homes open to visitors such as Washington's home, Mount Vernon.
This creates a special political culture for Virginia and its citizens, especially causing the feeling of pride and responsibility that incentivize to vote.
Sex, Age, and Race of Voters
Women have shown to vote more often than men
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Virginia's male to female ratio is 97:100 with 4,095,244 men and 4,231,045 women.
In today's times people above the age of 45 vote the most
About 36% of Virginia's native-born citizens are 45 years or older and thus count to the most reliable voters.
